Optimization of Russian oil exports under the existing embargo and price ceiling

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Tamara Yu. Safonova^а

^а«Independent Analytical Agency of the Oil and Gas Sector» LLC

DOI: 10.22394/2070-8378-2023-25-1-48-54

Abstract:
The article analyzes the sequential events during the implementation of the sanctions, Russia’s role in global oil and gas supplies, and the dependence on changes in Russian oil export volumes and the average monthly prices of Brent and Urals crude oil. The author proposes recommendations for avoiding the loss of export potential during the anti-Russian sanctions period. By the end of 2022, the European Union’s strategy of shifting to renewable energy sources, the reduction of Russian gas supplies amid sanctions pressure, and terrorist attacks on the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipeline systems led to an energy shortage in the global market and a global energy crisis. The decrease in oil shipments from Russia to the European Union can be compensated by the countries in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Russian oil falling under sanctions may be directed to Asia-Pacific region (APAC) countries. The cooperation of OPEC+ countries is essential to avoid unjustified losses during the anti-Russian sanctions period and avoid confrontation and competition among friendly countries in the Asia-Pacific market. The author proposes to form an action plan to coordinate changes in Eurasian cargo flows with the increased presence of Russia in the Asia-Pacific market, along with a simultaneous increase in the supply of resources by OPEC countries (replacing those fallen under anti-Russian sanctions) to the European Union.

Keywords:
oil shortage, gas shortage, sanctions, energy sector, the balance of supply and demand, oil cargo transportation, OPEC+

Received:
December 15, 2022

References:
Gusev M.S. Russia’s position in the global economy: scenarios and forecast. EKO. 2020. No. 7. P. 29–43. DOI: 10.30680/ECO0131- 7652-2020-7-29-43. In Russian
Ovakimyan M.S., Yusupov G.E. Energy crisis: Russia’s oil and gas trade turnover under the pressure of western sanctions. Rossiyskiy vneshneekonomicheskiy vestnik. 2022. No. 10. P. 54–69. In Russian

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